8Factor weekly prediction market analysis
8Factor
Weekly grades on the hottest cross-venue markets
Every Monday we pick the most traded Kalshi vs Polymarket disagreement, score it on four factors, then red-team the thesis. Read-only analysis — not financial advice.
This week's 8Factor
The Fed Hike That Vanished in a Week
CVenuesBAICAfterA-Fast
Kalshi 21¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · Verdict: PAPER
Read the 8Factor Report →The four factors
- Compare
Do venues disagree on the same outcome, and is the gap real?
- Fair value
Where does Predictagon AI place true probability?
- Net edge
What survives fees, depth and a safety buffer?
- Timing
How fast does the spread close vs. capital lockup?