8Factor Report #13: Alaska's Combo Market Sells Sullivan Cheaper Than Alaska's Senate Market
Alaska's governor race is all but over: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is at 98–99%. That makes "Democratic governor, Republican senator" almost the same bet as "Sullivan wins." But the combo trades about 3–4 points cheaper than Sullivan does on his own. Same outcome, two prices.
*Predictagon 8Factor Report · No. 13 · November 4, 2026 · Read-only analysis. Not financial advice.*
The market at a glance
Alaska Governor–Senate combo:
| Outcome | Kalshi (bid / ask) | Polymarket (bid / ask) |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats sweep | 70¢ / 89¢ | 73¢ / 89¢ |
| Dem governor, Rep senator | 5¢ / 12¢ | 3¢ / 12¢ |
| Rep governor, Dem senator | 0¢ / 2¢ | — / 0.4¢ |
| Republicans sweep | 0¢ / 3¢ | 0.1¢ / 7¢ |
| 24h volume | ~14.7K contracts | ~$13.5K |
The component markets:
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Kreiss-Tomkins (D) for governor | 98.2¢ / 99¢ | — |
| Sullivan (R) for Senate | 13¢ / 14¢ | 14.4¢ / 16¢ |
Trade it on Polymarket → · Trade it on Kalshi →
The 8Factor scorecard
| Factor | What it asks | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · Compare | Does the combo match its parts? | B |
| 2 · Fair value | What's the real probability? | C+ |
| 3 · Net edge | Is anything tradable after costs? | C+ |
| 4 · Timing | When does it close? | B+ |
| Red team | Inherited risk · Governor upset · Thin books · Combo rules | 4 live risks |
Verdict: MARGINAL. The combo is a cheaper way to own Sullivan. "Dem governor, Rep senator" should be worth about 14.3¢ against the venues' own component prices, and its ask is 12¢. That's a small consistency edge of 0.5–1¢ after costs. It becomes a big one if you share Report #5's view that Sullivan is worth about 32%.
Why this market, why now
Alaska has two ranked-choice races with very different shapes:
Combo markets bundle the two. When one leg is nearly settled, the combo should collapse onto the other leg's price. Here it doesn't, quite.
Factor 1 · Compare: Grade B
Question: does the combo match the component markets?
Treating the two races as independent, which is reasonable since one is effectively decided:
| Combo outcome | Implied by components | Kalshi mid | Polymarket mid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats sweep | 0.986 × 0.855 = 84.3% | 79.5% | 81.0% |
| Dem gov, Rep sen | 0.986 × 0.145 = 14.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Rep gov, Dem sen | 0.014 × 0.855 = 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Republicans sweep | 0.014 × 0.145 = 0.2% | 1.5% | 3.6% |
Add the two "Republican senator" rows and the combos price Sullivan at about 10% (Kalshi) and 11% (Polymarket), against 13.5–15.2% on the standalone Senate markets. That's a 3.5–4.5 point gap for the same outcome. B: a real inconsistency, but on thin books with wide spreads.
Factor 2 · Fair value: Grade C+
Question: what is "Dem governor, Rep senator" worth?
> AI fair value (Dem gov, Rep sen): 20% low · 31.5% mid · 44% high. Confidence: C+.
This inherits Report #5's Senate call: Sullivan at 32% (band 20–45%), because he leads on first choices and ranked-choice transfers from a Republican and a same-name independent lean his way. Multiply by Kreiss-Tomkins at 98.6%:
0.32 × 0.986 ≈ 31.5%.
On the market's own Senate price instead of ours, fair value is 14.3%. Both are above the combo's 12¢ ask.
Factor 3 · Net edge: Grade C+
Two versions of the trade.
1) The consistency trade: no view needed on the Senate race. Buy "Dem gov, Rep sen" at the 12¢ ask, against the component-implied 14.3¢:
| Step | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Buy at ask | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| Component-implied value | 14.3 | 14.3 |
| Gross edge | +2.3 | +2.3 |
| Fee (Kalshi formula / Polymarket 2%) | −0.7 | −0.2 |
| Predictagon buffer | −1.0 | −1.0 |
| Net edge | ≈ +0.6¢ | ≈ +1.1¢ |
Small, positive and real, which makes it MARGINAL.
2) The Report #5 view, expressed more cheaply. If you agree with our 32% Sullivan fair value, the combo gives you Sullivan exposure at 12¢ plus a 1.4% governor-upset risk, against 14–16¢ on the standalone market. That's the same bet for 15–25% less.
Depth is the limit. About $13,500 and 14,700 contracts traded in 24 hours across the two combo books, with spreads of 7–9¢. Small orders fill; anything larger moves the price. C+.
Factor 4 · Timing: Grade B+
Same clock as Report #5: B+.
The Red Team: four ways this call breaks
Red 1 · Everything in Report #5
The value case here is mostly Report #5's Senate call. If the outstanding Alaska ballots are as pro-Peltola as the market thinks, Sullivan is worth about 14% and this combo is worth about 14% too. The consistency edge survives, but the bigger view doesn't.
Watch: Alaska's count updates, especially rural regions.
Red 2 · A governor surprise
The combo needs Kreiss-Tomkins to win. At 98.6% that's very likely, and a 20-point lead is hard to lose even under ranked choice. If ranked-choice transfers somehow consolidate the anti-Kreiss-Tomkins vote, though, the combo loses even if Sullivan wins.
Watch: the governor's race tabulation on November 18 alongside the Senate count.
Red 3 · Thin books mean mids lie
Both combo books have spreads of 7–9¢ and little depth. A 12¢ ask might be a single small order. If it disappears, the next ask could be 15¢ or more, and the edge is gone.
Watch: order-book depth before trading.
Red 4 · The plumbing: combo resolution rules
Combo markets resolve on both races. Polymarket's combo also has an "Other" outcome quoted at 0/100¢, which covers cases outside the four named outcomes, such as an independent winner or a contested result. If either race is delayed or disputed, combo settlement could be held until both resolve.
Watch: each venue's combo rules, especially how "Other" and delayed certification are handled.
Bottom line
| Signal | MARGINAL: combo underprices "Dem gov, Rep sen" by ~2¢ vs components |
| Component-implied value | 14.3% vs 12¢ ask |
| With Report #5's view | ~31.5% fair, the cheapest way to own Sullivan |
| Clock | Nov 18 tabulation; certification Nov 25 |
| Biggest risk | Red 1: the Senate market is right about the late vote |
When one leg of a combo is all but settled, the combo should trade like the other leg. Alaska's doesn't, and the gap runs in a consistent direction: the combo underprices a Sullivan win by about 3–4 points. It's small and thin. It's also the kind of mismatch that disappears quickly once someone notices.
New 8Factor Reports publish every week at Predictagon.com/8Factor.
Data notes and methodology
Sources: NBC News: Governor results · NBC News: Alaska Senate results · Alaska Public Media: Senate race tight · Polymarket: Alaska Senate and Governor Combo