8Factor Report #14: The Market Expects a Unanimous Fed. This Year Says Otherwise.
Polymarket gives the December 9 Fed decision a 72.5% chance of zero dissents. The Fed's last three decisions this year went 9–3, 12–0 and 10–2. A unanimous vote is likely if the Fed hikes, but far from certain if it holds, and the market prices it as if a hike were settled.
*Predictagon 8Factor Report · No. 14 · November 4, 2026 · Read-only analysis. Not financial advice.*
The market at a glance
Polymarket, "How many dissent at the December Fed meeting?":
| Dissents | Bid | Ask | Mid |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 72¢ | 73¢ | 72.5 |
| 1 | 10.1¢ | 14.3¢ | 12.2 |
| 2 | 10.9¢ | 12.8¢ | 11.85 |
| 3 | 3¢ | 7¢ | 5 |
| 4+ | 1.1¢ | 5.4¢ | 3.25 |
| Volume | ~$47.6K lifetime; ~$925 in 24h |
Related: December hike 77–78¢ on both venues (Report #9). "Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by Dec 31": 8.35%.
The 8Factor scorecard
| Factor | What it asks | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · Compare | Do the venues disagree? | C |
| 2 · Fair value | What's the real probability? | C+ |
| 3 · Net edge | Is anything tradable after costs? | C+ |
| 4 · Timing | When does it close? | A− |
| Red team | A unanimous hike · Dove dissents · Personnel · Counting rules | 4 live risks |
Verdict: MARGINAL. The market leans too hard on a unanimous outcome. If the Fed hikes, a unanimous vote is the likely result. If it holds, the hawks who dissented in October will probably dissent again. Weighting the two, we get 60% for zero dissents, against 72.5% on the market. The edge is real, but the book trades less than $1,000 a day.
Why this market, why now
The FOMC's 2026 votes show a divided committee:
| Meeting | Decision | Vote | Dissents |
|---|---|---|---|
| July | Hold | 9–3 | 3 (for a move) |
| September 16 | Hike 25 bps | 12–0 | 0 |
| October 28 | Hold | 10–2 | 2 (Hammack, Cook: for a hike) |
The pattern is clear: when the Fed hikes, the hawks are satisfied and the vote is unanimous. When it holds, hawks dissent. December's dissent count therefore depends mostly on December's decision, which Report #9 put at 68% hike against a 77.5% market.
Factor 1 · Compare: Grade C
Question: do the venues disagree?
We found this market only on Polymarket. The comparison that matters is internal: the dissent market against the decision market. The five dissent buckets add up to about 104.8¢ at mids, a normal overround for a thin multi-outcome market. Single venue, so the grade is C.
Factor 2 · Fair value: Grade C+
Question: what's the probability of zero dissents on December 9?
> AI fair value (0 dissents): 48% low · 60% mid · 72% high. Confidence: C+.
Split by decision:
| If the Fed… | P(decision) | P(0 dissents given that decision) | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hikes 25 bps | 68% (Report #9) | ~75% | 51% |
| Holds | 31% | ~15% | 4.6% |
| Does something else | 1% | ~50% | 0.5% |
| Total | ~56% |
Using the market's 77.5% hike probability instead of ours gives about 61.5%. We put the fair value at 60%, between the two.
Why P(0 | hike) is only ~75%:
Why P(0 | hold) is only ~15%:
Divergence: 60% fair vs 72.5% market, −12.5 points. Flipped: "1 or more dissents" is worth about 40%, against 27.5% on the market.
Factor 3 · Net edge: Grade C+
Net Edge = divergence × log10(volume + 1)
The trade (per $1 payout):
| Step | Cents |
|---|---|
| Buy "0 dissents" NO (1 − 72¢ bid) | 28.0 |
| Fair value of NO | 40.0 |
| Gross edge | +12.0 |
| Polymarket fee (model assumption 2%) | −0.6 |
| Predictagon buffer | −1.0 |
| Net edge | ≈ +10.4¢ |
On paper, that's a strong edge. In practice the market traded about $925 in 24 hours. The spread on the "0" bucket is tight (72/73¢), so small orders fill, but a few hundred dollars is the realistic size. MARGINAL, graded C+ for depth.
A cheaper way to express the same view: if you agree with Report #9 that a hold is underpriced, buying the hold outright on a $12 million book is the deeper version of this trade. This market adds a second, smaller payoff if the hawks dissent even on a hike.
Factor 4 · Timing: Grade A−
Short, clean clock: A−.
The Red Team: four ways this call breaks
Our call is "zero dissents is about 12 points rich."
Red 1 · A unanimous hike, just like September
If October CPI runs hot and the Fed hikes with clear consensus, the committee could vote 12–0 again, as it did in September. Then zero dissents is close to certain, and our edge was the hold scenario that didn't happen. This is the most likely way our analysis is wrong.
Watch: October CPI and any shift in tone from members who voted to hold in October.
Red 2 · Doves stay quiet
Our 25% chance of a dissent on a hike assumes a dove might object to hiking into weak labor data. October's two dissents were both for a hike, and we found no dovish dissent this year. If doves keep voting with the majority, P(0 | hike) is closer to 90%, and fair value rises toward the market.
Watch: speeches from members who have expressed concern about the labor market.
Red 3 · Personnel changes
Polymarket prices Lisa Cook leaving the Board by December 31 at about 8%. She dissented for a hike in October. If she leaves before December 9, one likely hawkish dissent is gone. Board turnover generally changes who's voting and how.
Watch: news about Fed Board seats and nominations before December 9.
Red 4 · The plumbing: what counts as a dissent
The market counts dissenting votes in the official statement. A member who votes with the majority but releases a separate statement isn't a dissent. A member who dissents in favor of a different size of the same move (say, 50 bps instead of 25) is. If venue rules treat those cases differently from what traders assume, the count can surprise.
Watch: the market's resolution text on what counts as a dissent.
Bottom line
| Signal | MARGINAL: "0 dissents" rich; tiny book |
| AI fair value (0 dissents) | 60% (band 48–72%) vs 72.5% market |
| Key driver | Hike → likely unanimous; hold → hawks dissent again |
| Clock | 35 days, resolves Dec 9 |
| Biggest risk | Red 1: a consensus hike makes the vote 12–0 |
The dissent count is a second way to bet on the December decision, with an extra payoff if the committee stays divided. The market has priced it as if a unanimous hike were settled. This year's 9–3, 12–0 and 10–2 votes suggest the committee doesn't agree easily, and the decision itself isn't settled either.
New 8Factor Reports publish every week at Predictagon.com/8Factor.
Data notes and methodology
Sources: CNBC: Five takeaways from the October Fed decision · Yahoo Finance: Rates held in split vote · PredictionMarketsPicks: Fed odds after Warsh's first hike · Polymarket: December Fed dissents