8Factor Report #12: The Vote That Could End Ranked Choice Has No Real Market
Alaska may decide its Senate seat by ranked choice on November 18, the same month its voters decide whether to repeal ranked choice. Measure 2 is trailing by under three points and tightening. One venue's last trade says 93%, the other's mid says 37%, and neither is a price you can trade.
*Predictagon 8Factor Report · No. 12 · November 4, 2026 · Read-only analysis. Not financial advice.*
The market at a glance
| "Ballot Measure 2 passes" (repeal ranked choice) | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Bid / ask | 13¢ / 84¢ | 14¢ / 61¢ |
| Last trade / mid | 93¢ (last) | 37.5¢ (mid) |
| Volume | ~8.6K contracts lifetime | ~$2.7K lifetime; ~$700 in 24h |
For comparison, Polymarket's market on Alaska's noncitizen-voting measure trades at 96.8% with a 94/99.5¢ book. Contested-looking measures can still have real markets; this one doesn't.
Trade it on Polymarket → · Trade it on Kalshi →
The 8Factor scorecard
| Factor | What it asks | Grade |
|---|---|---|
| 1 · Compare | Do the venues disagree? | C |
| 2 · Fair value | What's the real probability? | C |
| 3 · Net edge | Is anything tradable after costs? | D |
| 4 · Timing | When does it close? | B |
| Red team | The outstanding vote · Stale prints · Effective date · Resolution | 4 live risks |
Verdict: PAPER. There's no market here, just quotes. Kalshi's 71-point spread and Polymarket's 47-point spread mean neither venue has done any price discovery since the polls closed. Our fair value is 38% for passage. That's close to Polymarket's mid by accident, not because that mid is informative. The real story is how this measure interacts with Report #5.
Why this market, why now
Alaska adopted top-four primaries and ranked-choice general elections by ballot measure in 2020. A repeal measure narrowly failed in 2024. It's back on the ballot this year as Ballot Measure 2.
Early Wednesday, with a large share of ballots still uncounted, the count stood at:
| Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|
| No (keep ranked choice) | 98,367 | 51.35% |
| Yes (repeal) | 93,200 | 48.65% |
That's a 5,167-vote margin for No. Overnight coverage described the repeal vote as "tightening": Yes gained as later batches came in.
The timing is unusual. The Senate race (Report #5) goes to ranked-choice tabulation on November 18. The same ballots that decide whether Alaska keeps ranked choice are being counted in a race that ranked choice will decide.
Factor 1 · Compare: Grade C
Question: do the venues disagree?
On paper, wildly: Kalshi's last trade is 93¢ and Polymarket's mid is 37.5¢. In practice, neither number means much:
Neither number is a price you could trade at. C, for a disagreement that can't be traded.
Factor 2 · Fair value: Grade C
Question: what's the real probability Measure 2 passes?
> AI fair value (repeal passes): 25% low · 38% mid · 52% high. Confidence: C.
The arithmetic. No leads by about 2.7 points on the count above. If total turnout lands near Report #5's estimate (about 288,000), roughly 95,000 ballots were still uncounted when that count was taken. To flip the result, Yes needs about 53% of the remainder.
Why repeal could still pass:
Why No is favored:
We put passage at 38%. Our confidence is C because we don't have an updated count for this measure after the overnight batches, and the outstanding mix matters more here than any trend.
Divergence: none meaningful, since there's no market price to diverge from.
Factor 3 · Net edge: Grade D
Net Edge = divergence × log10(volume + 1): undefined in any useful sense. Polymarket's ~$2,700 lifetime volume gives log10 ≈ 3.4, and the spreads are wider than any plausible edge.
What a trade would cost:
| Venue | Buy "passes" at | Buy "fails" at |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 84¢ | 87¢ (1 − 13¢ bid) |
| Polymarket | 61¢ | 86¢ (1 − 14¢ bid) |
Even against our 38% fair value, buying "fails" at 86–87¢ is worth about −24¢ per contract, and buying "passes" at 61–84¢ is worth −23¢ or worse. Both lose. D for tradability.
This is the honest grade for a lot of ballot-measure markets: interesting questions, no liquidity.
Factor 4 · Timing: Grade B
Three weeks to certification with frequent count updates: B.
The Red Team: four ways this call breaks
Our call is "repeal is about 38% to pass, and neither venue is pricing it."
Red 1 · The outstanding vote leans repeal
Our main argument is that Peltola-leaning ballots aren't repeal ballots. If the uncounted vote is mostly late mail from Republican-leaning areas, Yes's trend continues, and 53% of the remainder is achievable. In that case repeal is a coin flip or better.
Watch: the measure's running count in each update, which tells us more than any model.
Red 2 · The prices are stale, not wrong
A 93¢ last trade could mean someone knows something we don't, or simply that a pre-count trade was never updated. If an informed trader posts a real bid, the market could move quickly.
Watch: order-book depth on both venues. A tighter book is a signal in itself.
Red 3 · The effective-date question
We assume a passed repeal would not affect this year's tabulation. If someone argues in court that it should, the Senate race and the measure become legally entangled, with long delays for both.
Watch: any litigation tying the measure's result to the November 18 tabulation.
Red 4 · The plumbing: resolution sources
"Passes" means certified passage. A recount request on a close ballot measure could push resolution well past November 25, and venues' rules on delayed certification may differ.
Watch: each venue's resolution source and deadline language.
Bottom line
| Signal | PAPER: no tradable market on either venue |
| AI fair value (repeal passes) | 38% (band 25–52%) |
| Why it matters | Same ballots, same month, as Alaska's ranked-choice Senate count |
| Clock | Certification targeted Nov 25 |
| Biggest risk | Red 1: the outstanding vote leans repeal |
This is an important question, and a liquidity desert. We publish it anyway, because the right read on an empty book is "there is no price here," not a guess at one. If either venue develops a real book, we'll grade it properly.
New 8Factor Reports publish every week at Predictagon.com/8Factor.
Data notes and methodology
Sources: Alaska Watchman: RCV repeal tightens · PBS NewsHour: Ranked choice and Senate result timing · Alaska Beacon: Senate race a tossup · Polymarket: Alaska RCV repeal