This week's 8Factor
The Fed Hike That Vanished in a Week
Kalshi 21¢ · Polymarket 20¢ · Verdict: PAPER
Read the 8Factor Report →Mispricing Radar
Mispricing Radar — Live Arbitrage Signals
Live divergences between Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predictagon AI fair-value probabilities. Spot mispricings across prediction markets in real time — each signal links to the underlying market and its current odds.
Mispricing signals (23)
- Will Chengdu Rongcheng win Chinese Super League?
polymarket · Δ 0.893
- Will MrBeast's next video get between 270 and 280 million views on week 2?
polymarket · Δ 0.63
- Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
polymarket · Δ 0.51
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
polymarket · Δ 0.5
- Will Logan Paul return to the WWE ring before October 31, 2026?
polymarket · Δ 0.37
- Will Tanner Bibee win the 2026 World Series MVP?
polymarket · Δ 0.3515
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
polymarket · Δ 0.33499999999999996
- Anhelina Kalinina vs. Sonay Kartal: Total Sets O/U 2.5
polymarket · Δ 0.2495
- Will the Philadelphia Flyers record 80+ points?
polymarket · Δ 0.17500000000000004
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in October?
polymarket · Δ 0.16
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alabama be between 1,700,000 and 1,800,000?
polymarket · Δ 0.14049999999999999
- Will Fjord win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?
polymarket · Δ 0.12
- Will any player have 1,750+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
polymarket · Δ 0.11499999999999999
- Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?
polymarket · Δ 0.09999999999999998
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-11 House election by 30% or more?
polymarket · Δ 0.09
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-16 House election by 15%-20%?
polymarket · Δ 0.08
- Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
polymarket · Δ 0.08
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 0%-5%?
polymarket · Δ 0.0795
- Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
polymarket · Δ 0.07
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-34 House election by 12% or more?
polymarket · Δ 0.0655
- Will the New Orleans Saints have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?
polymarket · Δ 0.06
- Will it snow in Nashville, TN by November 30?
polymarket · Δ 0.06
- Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by December 31, 2026?
polymarket · Δ 0.06