NHS England will miss the 92% 18-week waiting time target by 2029

Market overview

The current trajectory shows only a 6.3 percentage point improvement from 65.3% to the 92% target over 4 years, requiring an average annual increase of 6.7 percentage points—unrealistic given historical trends and resource constraints.

healthcare prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

More healthcare markets

• DRC Ebola death toll exceeds 15,000 by December 2026 — 75% Yes
• UK NHS chronic care waiting times to exceed 12 weeks by 2027 — 80% Yes
• Princess Catherine's cancer remission status announced by end of 2026 — 85% Yes
• Obamacare enrollment in Ohio will drop by over 40% by 2028 — 70% Yes
• NHS AI triage tool reduces GP appointment wait times by 20% — 72% Yes
• Potential Divestment from UnitedHealth Group (UNH) — 45% Yes
• Medicaid work requirements reduce enrollment by 10% or more in 2026 — 68% Yes
• DRC Ebola deaths exceed 10,000 by 2026-12-31 — 85% Yes

Browse all healthcare markets →