Obamacare enrollment will fall below 10 million by 2027
Resolves: Annual effectuated Obamacare enrollment (as reported by CMS) is less than 10 million
user-generated· healthcare
Obamacare enrollment will fall below 10 million by 2027
Market overview
With federal subsidies expired since early 2026, enrollment continues to decline due to non-payment of premiums and fraudulent sign-ups. Current enrollment is around 11 million, so a further 10% drop would push it below 10 million by mid-2027.
healthcare prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2027-06-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Annual effectuated Obamacare enrollment (as reported by CMS) is less than 10 million
Source: user-generated
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