National Obamacare enrollment will drop below 10 million by 2027
Resolves: Total U.S. Obamacare enrollment reported by CMS drops below 10 million for the first time as of January 2027.
user-generated· healthcare
National Obamacare enrollment will drop below 10 million by 2027
Market overview
National enrollment fell 13% to ~20 million this year. With continued non-payment trends and no federal subsidy restoration expected, enrollment will fall below 10 million by Q1 2027, marking a 50% decline since peak pandemic-era levels.
healthcare prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 80%
- Closes
- 2027-01-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Total U.S. Obamacare enrollment reported by CMS drops below 10 million for the first time as of January 2027.
Source: user-generated
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