Medicaid work requirements reduce enrollment by 10% or more in 2026

Market overview

Nebraska's implementation of Medicaid work requirements is the first of several states expected to follow. Historical data from similar programs suggests a 10-15% reduction in enrollment within the first year of implementation.

healthcare prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

68%

Source: user-generated

More healthcare markets

• ACA enrollment drops exceed 3 million by Q4 2026 — 80% Yes
• Pediatrician visits for MMR split increase by 20% — 60% Yes
• Obamacare enrollment will fall below 10 million by 2027 — 75% Yes
• Obamacare enrollment in Ohio will drop by over 40% by 2028 — 70% Yes
• State-level Medicaid work requirements reduce enrollment by 15% — 70% Yes
• National Obamacare enrollment will drop below 10 million by 2027 — 80% Yes
• ACA enrollment drops exceed 2 million by December 2028 — 78% Yes
• Ohio's Obamacare enrollment will further decline by 20% by 2027 — 75% Yes

Browse all healthcare markets →