user-generated· geopolitics
U.S.-Iran ceasefire announced and Strait of Hormuz fully reopened by…
Market overview
The IEA's forecast assumes a ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. With recent hostilities slowing traffic, a formal agreement would signal normalization. The Strait's reopening would allow Middle Eastern producers to resume full exports.
geopolitics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is publicly announced and verified, and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to commercial shipping by December 31, 2026.
Source: user-generated
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