Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major act…

Market overview

This market asks whether a formal ceasefire framework will be signed in a significant active conflict zone by the end of the third quarter of 2026. Its resolution hinges on public announcements or treaties establishing a ceasefire in conflicts such as those in Ukraine, Sudan, or the Middle East.

Geopolitics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Volume

$0

More Geopolitics markets

• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
• Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
• US lowers tariffs on Mexican cars by Dec 2026 — 60% Yes
• Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
• US-Colombia coffee tariff deal by Dec 31 — 55% Yes
• US-Saudi relations will deteriorate by Q1 2027 — 65% Yes
• Taiwan tensions ease under new U.S.-China framework — 72% Yes

Browse all Geopolitics markets →