Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflic…

Market overview

This market is a complex event combining the conditions of the first two markets. It requires both a formal ceasefire framework to be signed in a major conflict zone by Q3 2026 AND global oil benchmarks to remain below $95 for the rest of the year.

Geopolitics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

30%

Volume

$0

More Geopolitics markets

• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
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