user-generated· geopolitics
Le Pen advances past first round of 2027 French election
Market overview
Marine Le Pen secures enough votes to advance past the first round of the 2027 French presidential election, despite the legal and tagging controversy. Her campaign gains momentum from her successful appeal or tag removal.
geopolitics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2027-04-12
More geopolitics markets
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
- Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
- Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
- Ecuador minister blames Kenya within 14 days — 50% Yes
- US lowers tariffs on Mexican cars by Dec 2026 — 60% Yes
- UK increases military aid to Ukraine by end-2026 — 75% Yes
Loading…