RSF captures El Obeid by August 31 2026

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will capture El Obeid by the end of August due to sustained drone strikes weakening Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) defenses. Historical patterns of RSF sieges and urban assaults support this outcome.

geopolitics · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2026-08-31

More geopolitics markets

• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
• Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
• US suspends all off-duty hikes in Morocco for 2 years — 55% Yes
• Iran escalates Strait of Hormuz disruptions within 30 days — 75% Yes
• Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
• Qatar announces formal agreement with Iran by 2027-Q4 — 70% Yes

Browse all geopolitics markets →