US-Israel ceasefire with Iran collapses by Oct 2026

Market overview

The ceasefire agreement signed in June 2026 is fragile and faces growing pressure from unresolved issues, including Iran's nuclear program and regional proxy conflicts. Escalating incidents in the Strait of Hormuz or renewed direct strikes will likely lead to its breakdown by October 2026.

geopolitics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

Closes

2026-10-31

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