U.S. and Iran announce formal ceasefire by August 31, 2026

Market overview

Trump’s escalating strikes followed by repeated ceasefire claims signal momentum toward a negotiated end. Domestic opposition and regional exhaustion with the conflict increase pressure for a formal agreement. Satellite imagery and intelligence reports indicate reduced military activity.

geopolitics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2026-08-31

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