Sudanese Armed Forces regain control of El Obeid by Q1 2027

Market overview

The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) will intensify their efforts to reclaim El Obeid, a strategic city, from the RSF. With increased international pressure and potential support, the SAF is likely to succeed in pushing back the RSF and regaining control of the city by the first quarter of 2027.

geopolitics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2027-03-31

More geopolitics markets

• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
• Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
• Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
• Ecuador minister blames Kenya within 14 days — 50% Yes
• US lowers tariffs on Mexican cars by Dec 2026 — 60% Yes
• UK increases military aid to Ukraine by end-2026 — 75% Yes

Browse all geopolitics markets →