Iran maintains Strait of Hormuz closure through September 2026

Market overview

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all ship traffic on July 11, 2026. Given the recent escalation and lack of diplomatic resolution, Iran is likely to sustain this closure through at least September 2026.

geopolitics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-09-30

More geopolitics markets

• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
• Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
• Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
• Ecuador minister blames Kenya within 14 days — 50% Yes
• US lowers tariffs on Mexican cars by Dec 2026 — 60% Yes
• UK increases military aid to Ukraine by end-2026 — 75% Yes

Browse all geopolitics markets →