Progressive candidates will underperform in the 2026 midterm elections
Resolves: Fewer progressive candidates win their races compared to the 2024 midterm elections.
user-generated· geopolitics
Progressive candidates will underperform in the 2026 midterm elections
Market overview
Hong's defeat suggests a potential trend of progressive candidates struggling in the upcoming elections.
geopolitics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2026-11-08
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Fewer progressive candidates win their races compared to the 2024 midterm elections.
Source: user-generated
More geopolitics markets
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
- Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
- At least 5 U.S. senators publicly endorse FIFA 2030 World Cup bid by end of 2026 — 68% Yes
- Israel protests halt F-35 sale to Turkey by 2027-Q2 — 60% Yes
- California loses House seat due to census changes — 60% Yes
- Western leaders attend Russia's 2028 Victory Day parade in greater numbers than 2028 — 55% Yes
- Morocco purchases US military AI surveillance tech by 2028 — 55% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…