Desert rain frog declared extinct in the wild by 2028

Market overview

Continued diamond mining expansion in southern Africa will drive the desert rain frog to functional extinction by 2028. Habitat destruction and climate change will eliminate remaining populations despite conservation efforts.

environmental prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

68%

Closes

2028-06-30

More environmental markets

• Mollusk extinction events accelerate in deep-sea vents — 68% Yes
• Desert rain frog population declines by 20% within two years due to diamond mining expansion — 80% Yes
• Deep-sea vent mollusc extinction surpasses 66% by 2027 — 75% Yes
• Numbat population recovery exceeds 50% by 2028 — 60% Yes
• Desert rain frog extinction declared within 18 months — 80% Yes
• Will any new construction or development project begin at Big Bend National Park by December 31, 2025, that is directly related to the halted project's original scope? — 25% Yes
• IUCN Red List will add at least 500 new species to critically endangered category by end of 2026 — 70% Yes

Browse all environmental markets →