US labor market avoids recession in 2026 despite Iran war
user-generated· macro
US labor market avoids recession in 2026 despite Iran war
Market overview
Given current stabilization in job growth (115,000 jobs added in April 2026) and resistance to energy shock impacts, the U.S. labor market will avoid a recession in 2026. Energy cost pressures are not yet severe enough to trigger widespread hiring cuts or layoffs.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- German-French EU reform agreement announced by end of 2026 — 55% Yes
- U.S. stock market share exceeds 70% of global equity value by end of 2027 — 70% Yes
- China's yuan strengthens past 7.10 per USD — 65% Yes
- S&P 500 falls if April jobs fall below 50,000 — 60% Yes
- California income tax revenue exceeds 65% of state tax by 2027 — 65% Yes
- BoJ to implement significant rate hike by December 2026 — 60% Yes
- Venezuela's inflation rate exceeds 300% in 2026 due to quake damage — 70% Yes
- US Southwest heatwave triggers mass power outages by May 18 — 75% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…