North Korea conducts nuclear test within 6 months
Resolves: North Korea publicly announces or is confirmed by IAEA to have conducted a nuclear test before 2027-02-18.
user-generated· geopolitics
North Korea conducts nuclear test within 6 months
Market overview
North Korea will conduct a nuclear weapon test by February 18, 2027.
geopolitics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 40%
- Closes
- 2027-02-18
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
North Korea publicly announces or is confirmed by IAEA to have conducted a nuclear test before 2027-02-18.
Source: user-generated
More geopolitics markets
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
- Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
- GOP will not adopt anti-vax platform by 2027 — 85% Yes
- Republican Senate leadership changes by 2026-12-31 — 55% Yes
- Cuba and U.S. sign a bilateral trade agreement by 2028 — 55% Yes
- Philippines grants India naval base access by 2026 — 68% Yes
- U.S. Congress votes to block further Iran strikes by Dec 2026 — 72% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…