Republican Senate leadership changes by 2026-12-31
Resolves: A new Republican Senate Minority Leader (or Majority Leader if Republicans regain control) is elected and formally takes office by December 31, 2026.
user-generated· geopolitics
Republican Senate leadership changes by 2026-12-31
Market overview
If McConnell resigns, a leadership contest within the GOP Senate caucus would likely occur by the end of 2026. John Thune is the most probable successor, but intra-party dynamics could alter the outcome.
geopolitics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 55%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
A new Republican Senate Minority Leader (or Majority Leader if Republicans regain control) is elected and formally takes office by December 31, 2026.
Source: user-generated
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