Taiwan receives increased US military support within 6 months

Market overview

Following the summit, the US will announce new arms sales, expanded military exercises, or enhanced defense cooperation with Taiwan to deter Chinese aggression. Escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait and Trump's hawkish stance make this outcome highly plausible.

geopolitics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Source: user-generated

More geopolitics markets

• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
• Vietnam opposes China's South China Sea claim at ASEAN summit by November 2026 — 60% Yes
• Qatar mediates ceasefire between Iran and Israel by 2026-12-31 — 55% Yes
• U.S. imposes new sanctions on Iran within 60 days — 80% Yes
• Iran signs non-dollar trade pact with a Eurasian country by Q1 2027 — 40% Yes
• Iran increases uranium enrichment capacity within 12 months — 70% Yes

Browse all geopolitics markets →