Iceland applies for EU accession within 5 years

Market overview

Iceland submits formal application to join the European Union by end of 2031.

geopolitics prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

35%

Closes

2031-12-31

More geopolitics markets

• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in a major active conflict zone by Q3 2026, leading to global oil benchmarks staying below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 30% Yes
• Will global oil benchmarks (Brent/WTI) stay below $95 for the remainder of 2026? — 55% Yes
• Will a formal ceasefire framework be signed in at least one major active conflict zone by Q3 2026? — 60% Yes
• Lebanese government collapses by December 2027 due to crisis — 55% Yes
• Western leaders will not attend Russia’s Victory Day parade in 2027 — 90% Yes
• Ecuador minister blames Kenya within 14 days — 50% Yes
• US lowers tariffs on Mexican cars by Dec 2026 — 60% Yes
• UK increases military aid to Ukraine by end-2026 — 75% Yes

Browse all geopolitics markets →