Fed cuts rates by at least 50 bps by December 2026
Resolves: The Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds rate by at least 50 basis points between July 2026 and December 2026, inclusive.
user-generated· macro
Fed cuts rates by at least 50 bps by December 2026
Market overview
The Fed is expected to signal a more dovish stance in its July 2026 meeting, with markets pricing in aggressive rate cuts. A 50+ bps cut by December would validate this expectation, driven by cooling inflation and labor market softening.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds rate by at least 50 basis points between July 2026 and December 2026, inclusive.
Source: user-generated
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