Iran's GDP contracts by at least 5% in 2026 due to sanctions and instability
Resolves: Iran's GDP for 2026 contracts by 5% or more compared to 2025, as reported by IMF or World Bank
user-generated· macro
Iran's GDP contracts by at least 5% in 2026 due to sanctions and inst…
Market overview
The funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Khamenei occur amid severe economic strain from international sanctions and regional instability. With reduced oil exports and potential further sanctions, Iran's GDP is projected to shrink significantly in 2026.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 80%
- Closes
- 2027-01-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Iran's GDP for 2026 contracts by 5% or more compared to 2025, as reported by IMF or World Bank
Source: user-generated
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