US-China trade deal signed within 6 months of summit
user-generated· macro
US-China trade deal signed within 6 months of summit
Market overview
The summit is expected to prioritize economic cooperation. A temporary trade truce or partial deal is likely, given Trump's focus on domestic growth and Xi's need to stabilize China's economy amid slowing global demand.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…