Fed will cut benchmark rate by 50bps by December 2026
Resolves: The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a target range for the federal funds rate that is at least 50 basis points lower than the rate on July 10, 2026.
user-generated· macro
Fed will cut benchmark rate by 50bps by December 2026
Market overview
Recent market signals point to growing pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy amid cooling inflation and softer economic data. With core PCE trending downward and unemployment ticking up, a 50-basis-point cut is likely to prevent a recession.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-17
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a target range for the federal funds rate that is at least 50 basis points lower than the rate on July 10, 2026.
Source: user-generated
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