Global bond yields will rise by at least 50bps by 2026-12-31
Resolves: The average yield on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index is at least 50 basis points higher on 2026-12-31 compared to 2026-07-11.
user-generated· macro
Global bond yields will rise by at least 50bps by 2026-12-31
Market overview
The record short position by banks suggests a bet against bond prices, which typically correlates with rising yields. With inflation expectations still elevated and central banks potentially constrained by fiscal pressures, yields are likely to trend higher. Historical precedents of large short positions often precede significant yield spikes.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The average yield on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index is at least 50 basis points higher on 2026-12-31 compared to 2026-07-11.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…