UK average mortgage rates rise above 5.5% by 2027-Q1
Resolves: Bank of England base rate exceeds 5.5% as reported in the Bank's Monetary Policy Report on or before 2027-03-31
user-generated· macro
UK average mortgage rates rise above 5.5% by 2027-Q1
Market overview
The Bank of England's base rate will increase to at least 5.5% by the end of Q1 2027, driven by persistent inflation from energy supply disruptions linked to the Iran war. This will push average mortgage rates for new deals above 5.5%, exceeding current projections.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2027-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Bank of England base rate exceeds 5.5% as reported in the Bank's Monetary Policy Report on or before 2027-03-31
Source: user-generated
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