Oil production in Venezuela drops 10% by end of 2026
Resolves: Venezuela's oil production (measured in barrels per day) is at least 10% below pre-quake (2026-07-04) levels as reported by OPEC or PDVSA
user-generated· macro
Oil production in Venezuela drops 10% by end of 2026
Market overview
Key oil infrastructure near the quake's epicenter is damaged, disrupting production. Venezuela's oil output, already struggling, will decline by at least 10% from pre-quake levels by December 2026 due to earthquake-related disruptions.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Venezuela's oil production (measured in barrels per day) is at least 10% below pre-quake (2026-07-04) levels as reported by OPEC or PDVSA
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…