Iran’s oil exports fall below 500,000 barrels per day by November 2026
Resolves: Iran’s average daily crude oil exports drop below 500,000 barrels per day for a full month by 2026-11-08, as reported by OPEC or secondary sources
user-generated· macro
Iran’s oil exports fall below 500,000 barrels per day by November 2026
Market overview
The U.S. revoked Iran’s general license for oil sales on 2026-07-08. Combined with renewed sanctions pressure and shipping disruptions, exports are set to halve within four months.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-11-08
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Iran’s average daily crude oil exports drop below 500,000 barrels per day for a full month by 2026-11-08, as reported by OPEC or secondary sources
Source: user-generated
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