10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.5% by Q1 2027
Resolves: The 10-year Treasury yield closes below 3.50% on any trading day between 2026-12-01 and 2027-03-31.
user-generated· macro
10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.5% by Q1 2027
Market overview
The record bond shorts by banks indicate growing pessimism about bond valuations. This positions the 10-year Treasury yield to decline as demand for bonds increases, potentially pushing yields below 3.5% by early 2027.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2027-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The 10-year Treasury yield closes below 3.50% on any trading day between 2026-12-01 and 2027-03-31.
Source: user-generated
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