Canada’s GDP growth slows post-World Cup loss by Q4 2026
Resolves: Canada’s real GDP growth for Q4 2026 is reported by Statistics Canada to be at least 0.5 percentage points lower than the average of the two preceding quarters (Q2 and Q3 2026).
user-generated· macro
Canada’s GDP growth slows post-World Cup loss by Q4 2026
Market overview
The Canadian national team’s World Cup elimination and public reaction may weigh on consumer sentiment and tourism revenue in Q3-Q4 2026. Analysts expect a measurable dip in GDP growth compared to pre-tournament forecasts.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Canada’s real GDP growth for Q4 2026 is reported by Statistics Canada to be at least 0.5 percentage points lower than the average of the two preceding quarters (Q2 and Q3 2026).
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…