Dow drops 5% within 30 days of McConnell resignation announcement
Resolves: Dow Jones Industrial Average declines by at least 5% within 30 calendar days of McConnell’s resignation announcement
user-generated· macro
Dow drops 5% within 30 days of McConnell resignation announcement
Market overview
A McConnell resignation would trigger uncertainty in political stability, particularly for GOP fiscal policies. Markets are likely to react negatively to the loss of a key legislative negotiator.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 55%
- Closes
- 2026-11-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Dow Jones Industrial Average declines by at least 5% within 30 calendar days of McConnell’s resignation announcement
Source: user-generated
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