At least 15 incoming House Democrats refuse to commit to Jeffries for Speaker by January 2027
Resolves: At least 15 newly elected House Democrats state publicly (via interviews, social media, or official statements) that they will not commit to voting for Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker of the House.
user-generated· politics
At least 15 incoming House Democrats refuse to commit to Jeffries for…
Market overview
The growing Jeffries-skeptic caucus, including DSA-backed and progressive primary winners, is likely to expand further in August primaries. This bloc will publicly refuse to commit to voting for Jeffries before the 118th Congress convenes.
politics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2027-01-03
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
At least 15 newly elected House Democrats state publicly (via interviews, social media, or official statements) that they will not commit to voting for Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker of the House.
Source: user-generated
More politics markets
- JD Vance partnership or acquisition announced? — 44% Yes
- Virgin Galactic major announcement before March 2027? — 36% Yes
- Will BRICS dominate headlines in the next 12-18 months? — 33% Yes
- Conservative Party loses 1-3 seats in by-elections by 2027 — 70% Yes
- Will the House GOP's approval rating among registered voters drop below 35% in a major national poll by June 30, 2027, specifically citing the Epstein files as a contributing factor? — 30% Yes
- Reform UK enters Scottish Parliament by 2026 — 55% Yes
- Georgia's gubernatorial election sees Raffensperger drop out by June 2026 — 25% Yes
- Reform UK holds lead in national polls by 2028 general election — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…