US stock market leads global equities by year-end 2026
Resolves: The annualized return of the S&P 500 from July 4, 2026, to December 31, 2026, exceeds the annualized return of the MSCI World ex-US index over the same period by at least 10 percentage points.
US stock market leads global equities by year-end 2026
Market overview
The U.S. equity market currently represents 65% of global market capitalization. Given America's sustained economic growth, energy independence, and dominance in high-value industries like AI, the S&P 500 will outperform the MSCI World ex-US index by at least 10 percentage points in 2026.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The annualized return of the S&P 500 from July 4, 2026, to December 31, 2026, exceeds the annualized return of the MSCI World ex-US index over the same period by at least 10 percentage points.
Source: user-generated
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