Oil prices exceed $100 per barrel by December 2026 due to Middle East tensions
Resolves: WTI or Brent crude oil price exceeds $100 per barrel at any point during December 2026.
user-generated· macro
Oil prices exceed $100 per barrel by December 2026 due to Middle East…
Market overview
Increased geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, combined with potential military actions, are likely to drive oil prices above $100 per barrel by December 2026. Market reactions to geopolitical risks historically support this outcome.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
WTI or Brent crude oil price exceeds $100 per barrel at any point during December 2026.
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…