Fed cuts benchmark rate by 25bps by December 2026
Resolves: The Federal Reserve's effective federal funds rate is reduced by at least 25 basis points from its July 2026 level by the December 2026 meeting.
user-generated· macro
Fed cuts benchmark rate by 25bps by December 2026
Market overview
The Fed signals a dovish pivot in its July meeting, citing cooling inflation and labor market softening. Markets price in a 70% chance of a 25bps cut by December, per fed futures.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve's effective federal funds rate is reduced by at least 25 basis points from its July 2026 level by the December 2026 meeting.
Source: user-generated
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