Fed pauses rate hikes in September 2026, first cut in December
Resolves: The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces no change to the federal funds rate at the September 2026 meeting AND implements a rate cut at the December 2026 meeting.
user-generated· macro
Fed pauses rate hikes in September 2026, first cut in December
Market overview
Market expectations for a dovish pivot have grown, with traders pricing in a 60% chance of a pause in September. A pause would likely be followed by a rate cut in December to address slowing economic momentum.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces no change to the federal funds rate at the September 2026 meeting AND implements a rate cut at the December 2026 meeting.
Source: user-generated
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