Core PCE inflation falls below 3.2% by December 2026
Resolves: Core PCE inflation (measured in the December 2026 release) is reported as below 3.2%.
user-generated· macro
Core PCE inflation falls below 3.2% by December 2026
Market overview
The methodological changes to PCE calculation will reduce core PCE inflation by 0.2 percentage points. Given the May 2026 reading of 3.4%, the adjusted figure is expected to dip below 3.2% in December 2026 data.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 75%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Core PCE inflation (measured in the December 2026 release) is reported as below 3.2%.
Source: user-generated
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