Iran's new leadership will escalate proxy conflicts by 2026-12-31
Resolves: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deployments or increased arms shipments to proxies in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen exceed pre-July 2026 levels, confirmed by at least two independent intelligence sources.
Iran's new leadership will escalate proxy conflicts by 2026-12-31
Market overview
The new Iranian regime, facing domestic instability and weakened alliances, will increase support for proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to restore influence. Recent setbacks in Lebanon and Syria signal a likely shift toward more aggressive proxy engagement.
geopolitics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deployments or increased arms shipments to proxies in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen exceed pre-July 2026 levels, confirmed by at least two independent intelligence sources.
Source: user-generated
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