user-generated· macro
EU wildfire deaths rise above 200 in 2026, exceeding 2025 toll
Market overview
The total number of wildfire-related fatalities across the EU in 2026 will exceed 200, up from 187 in 2025, with Spain accounting for at least 40% of the increase. This trend will accelerate calls for stricter land-use and climate adaptation policies.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 69%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Eurostat or national authorities report 2026 wildfire fatalities exceeding 200 across the EU.
Source: user-generated
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