10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.5% by 2026-12-31

Market overview

Fed's hawkish stance under Warsh pushes 10-year Treasury yield above 4.5% by year-end 2026.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2026-12-31

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Canadian dollar weakens against USD by 10% — 75% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →