10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.5% by 2026-12-31
Resolves: 10-year Treasury yield (as reported by U.S. Treasury) exceeds 4.5% at any point before 2026-12-31.
user-generated· macro
10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.5% by 2026-12-31
Market overview
Fed's hawkish stance under Warsh pushes 10-year Treasury yield above 4.5% by year-end 2026.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
10-year Treasury yield (as reported by U.S. Treasury) exceeds 4.5% at any point before 2026-12-31.
Source: user-generated
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