S&P 500 outperforms gold by 10% in Q4 2026 amid structural inflation
Resolves: S&P 500 total return (SPY) minus gold price return (GLD) ≥ 10% by 2026-12-31.
user-generated· macro
S&P 500 outperforms gold by 10% in Q4 2026 amid structural inflation
Market overview
S&P 500 total return exceeds gold price return by at least 10% between 2026-10-01 and 2026-12-31.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
S&P 500 total return (SPY) minus gold price return (GLD) ≥ 10% by 2026-12-31.
Source: user-generated
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