Trump leads Biden in 2026 crime policy polling by 10+ points

Market overview

Public opinion polls will reflect a significant shift favoring Trump's tough-on-crime policies over Biden's approach by December 2026. This follows sustained media coverage of rising urban crime rates and Trump's aggressive messaging on the issue.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Source: user-generated

More macro markets

• 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
• Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
• US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
• Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
• Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
• AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
• U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
• Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →