NATO members increase defense spending to 4% of GDP by 2027
Resolves: NATO releases official data showing aggregate defense spending of at least 4% of GDP for member states
user-generated· macro
NATO members increase defense spending to 4% of GDP by 2027
Market overview
NATO allies will accelerate defense spending commitments to at least 4% of GDP in response to Trump's pressure, despite internal resistance. Higher spending will be formalized at the next NATO summit in Brussels.
macro prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2027-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
NATO releases official data showing aggregate defense spending of at least 4% of GDP for member states
Source: user-generated
More macro markets
- 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 5% by Q4 2026 due to Fed oversight — 67% Yes
- Ukraine aid funding drops 20% in next federal budget cycle — 70% Yes
- US new business filings surpass 2026 record by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Fed holds interest rates steady through 2026 due to labor stability — 70% Yes
- Fed cuts rates within 6 months under Warsh — 70% Yes
- AI boosts oil production by 5%+ by 2027 — 70% Yes
- U.S. energy production hits new annual record in 2026 — 80% Yes
- Trump's approval rating drops below 40% by year-end — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…