Fed cuts federal funds rate by 25bps or more by December 2026

Market overview

The Federal Reserve will implement at least one 25-basis-point rate cut in the fourth quarter of 2026, reversing prior tightening amid stabilizing oil prices. Allspring’s base case aligns with this scenario, citing subsiding energy-driven inflation pressures.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Source: user-generated

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