Uninsured rate in US rises above 10% by Q4 2026

Market overview

The expiration of enhanced ACA subsidies and Medicaid work requirements will drive total uninsured rates upward. Historical trends and early 2026 data suggest a 17-26% reduction in ACA enrollment alone, pushing the national uninsured rate past 10%.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

78%

Source: user-generated

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